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WMR-2022 U.S. Durum Situation

By: Jim Peterson
Posted: Nov 15 2022

The U.S. durum crop is currently estimated at 64 million bushels, up by 70% from 2021. This, along with slightly higher import projections places supplies at 132 million bushels, up 26 percent from last year.  The larger supplies have pressured prices relative to a year ago, although bids have increased from the harvest period.

USDA’s current projection is for a collective growth of 23% for demand to 100 million bushels.  Exports are projected at 20 million bushels, up nearly 43% from last year and closer to the five-year average.  Domestic use will also see gains, due in part to continued strong pasta demand, and less substitution of HRS in some products, due to the closer price relationship this marketing year.

On the export side, sales have been slow to develop in both the EU and North Africa.  Both regions had shortfalls in domestic production and will need imports.  Overall, U.S. sales to date are at 5 million bushels, with about 2.6 million in sales to Italy and 1.1 to Algeria.  Many analysts expect a better sales pace to ensue in November and December, historically strong buying periods for Italy and North Africa.

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