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WMR - 2022 U.S. Hard Red Spring and Durum Planted Area?

By: Jim Peterson
Posted: Jun 17 2022

WMR - 2022 U.S. Hard Red Spring and Durum Planted Area?

The 2022 planting season has been one of the coolest, and wettest on record for much of North Dakota and northern Minnesota, leading to one of the latest HRS planting seasons since 2011 and 2013.  As the accompanying chart shows, national progress was just 82 percent on June 5, behind the 2013 pace and slightly ahead of 2011.  In 2011 and 2013, final HRS planted area fell by 2 and 1 million acres, respectively, from the March survey to final acreage estimates.  While a similar decline will not happen this year, due to the market incentives to plant later than normal, there is likely a notable level of intended HRS plantings that were not able to be planted.  On June 5, Minnesota was just 65% planted, and ND was 74%, but both exceeded 90% by June 12th. Progress in later stages was better than many expected, but mid-June was likely the final date for most producers.

The initial March survey of growers indicated combined HRS wheat acres in the four main states of MT, ND, SD and MN would be 10.26 million acres, down slightly from 10.32 million in 2021.  The March through May rally in Minneapolis futures likely prompted expanded interest in HRS, but was it enough to offset the potential level of acres that were not able to be planted in ND and MN?  Fortunately, MT and SD had near normal planting seasons with some of their regions still facing overly dry conditions.  

For durum, it has been a stark difference between ND and MT.  North Dakota had just 62% of its intended durum acres planted by June 5th, and reached 83% by June 12th.  In MT, 93% of their crop was planted by June 5th.  The March acreage survey indicated ND producers intended to plant 980,000 acres, up 100,000 from last year, with MT producers indicating 840,000 acres, up 170,000.  Montana likely planted all of their intended acres, with some analysts speculating slightly more, while ND acres likely fell short of March intentions, and maybe even below 2021 levels.  

The June acreage report, released at the end of this month will provide some clarity for market participants, but no clear answers will likely be known until producers certify their acres later this summer.  The impact of delayed plantings on final yields, will also add another variable to an already complex and volatile pricing year for both producers and buyers of U.S. HRS and durum 

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