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WMR-World Durum Situation Similar to 2022

By: Jim Peterson
Posted: Jun 19 2023

The world durum supply situation for 2023 is remarkably similar to a year ago, with overall production currently projected at 1.2 billion bushels, according to the International Grains Council.  Production looks to be stable to higher in North America, steady in North Africa, and slightly higher in Europe, but  this is offset by declines in Turkey.  The current projections by region have the European crop at 276 million bushels, and while higher than a year ago, it is lower than early winter expectations.  In North Africa, drought conditions in March and April sharply lowered crop prospects in Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia from early season expectations, and some local crop observers still feel projections are too high. 

In North America, stable production in both the U.S. and Mexico is expected.  The U.S. estimate might decline some from the current projection of 66 mb as final planted area falls short of March expectations, but this will be tempered by good early season growing conditions.  In Canada, lower planted area is being offset by expectations for a return to average yields, after the dry growing season in 2022. The lower than expected early season world production projection, combined with historically tight beginning stocks in Canada, Europe and North Africa will keep world durum supplies tighter than average for a third straight year.  

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