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WMR-World Wheat Production 2023

By: Jim Peterson
Posted: Jun 19 2023

The early projection for world wheat in 2023 is for record production of 29.4 billion bushels, up from 29 billion last year. Combined production in China and India, the two largest producers of wheat by country, is projected to reach 9.3 billion bushels, up about 4.5 percent from last year.  Higher production prospects in the Middle East region will also offset projected declines in North Africa.

These gains in production will be partially offset by a projected net decline in production across major export countries and regions.  Europe, Canada and Argentina are projected higher, while Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Australia are projected lower.  U.S. production has remained flat for three consecutive years. 
   
In Australia, planted area is projected similar to recent years, but yields will be pared back by expected dry conditions from now through harvest in November and December, as El Nino weather patterns intensify. Conversely, El Nino typically leads to enhanced rainfall in Argentina production regions, applying higher production prospects.

In Canada, higher planted area, and early expectations for average yields is pushing their production estimate higher for a third straight year.  The current level of increase in production over 2022 may be a bit pre-mature however, as soil moisture remains variable across major growing regions, and timely rains will be needed to secure average to above-average yields. 

The trends in production by major exporters is the dominant variable in their export competitiveness, along with final harvest quality.  Based on the current projections, Europe, the Black Sea region and Canada will likely be price setters in the world export market.  The U.S. will likely gain some market share in South Asia, due to the smaller Australian crop, but a larger crop in Argentina will temper demand in South America.

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